![[Linkpost] “What’s the Current Stock Market Bubble?” by PeterMcCluskey](https://is1-ssl.mzstatic.com/image/thumb/Podcasts211/v4/a6/b7/1a/a6b71a43-fe2a-3637-c30c-64e41955b16d/mza_8291033219098401263.jpg/400x400bb.jpg "[Linkpost] “What’s the Current Stock Market Bubble?” by PeterMcCluskey")
[Linkpost] “What’s the Current Stock Market Bubble?” by PeterMcCluskey
Description
There's a stock market bubble currently in progress. The key question
is: which stocks are unsustainably high?
There are a few ways that the current AI boom could turn out to be a
mistake (as in AI stocks dropping much below current levels; I'm not
commenting here on whether AI will kill us all).
- Regulations outlaw most new AI development on safety grounds.
- Financial markets decide that frontier AI companies won't make much
profit (my
counter-argument). - Military action in Taiwan might cause an AI winter where lack of new
GPUs slows progress dramatically for a couple of years.
I'm betting that if any of those causes happen, they're more than two
years away, and that the resulting crash will leave AI stocks above
current levels.
Note that that I don't take seriously any claims that AI is approaching
technical limits. If AI hit a wall in 2025, it was bad news for the
wall.
The most likely alternative to AI being in a bubble is that some large
stocks in slow-growing industries are in a bubble. Not a stereotypical
bubble, but a bubble that overconfidently predicts [...]
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First published:
December 21st, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RDqRTwz5Qnum4LtNT/what-s-the-current-stock-market-bubble
Linkpost URL:
https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2025/12/21/whats-the-current-stock-market-bubble/
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
United States
